225 Years in Six Frames
The long arc of liberty: from a world of near-universal autocracy in 1800, through two world wars and the Cold War's end, to the democratic peak of 2010 — and the retreat that followed.
1800
11
0% free
→
1900
19
0% free
→
1945
23
7% free
→
1989
41
25% free
→
2010
53
42% free
→
2025
48
34% free ▼
0 — Autocracy100 — Full Democracy
The pattern is clear: two centuries of painstaking democratic expansion culminated around 2010. Since then, the map has been turning red again — not from war or revolution, but from erosion within. The 2025 frame resembles 2000 more than it does 2010.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65-0.72 (scaled: ~65-72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
Formal Probability Estimation: What Comes After the Sixth Frame?
The six frames present an implicit narrative: expansion, peak, recession. But what probability should we assign to the next frame? The transition matrix (N=1,565 transitions, 91 countries), survival analysis (N=579 spells), and GMM component weights (K=5) allow formal estimation of three global trajectory scenarios for 2030-2035.
| Scenario (Frame 7: ~2035) | P(scenario) | Empirical Basis | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Continued Recession Mean L drops to ~42-45, <30% free | 0.50 | AR(1) persistence: beta=0.9564, meaning current trajectory is strongly self-reinforcing. Hybrid zone (S5-S6) retention = 69-76% at 5 yr. Countries currently in decline (US, India, Indonesia, Georgia, Thailand) show S6/S7 transition rates of 27-24% downward per period. GMM: hybrid components (C3+C4) = 0.459 of distribution, indicating the hybrid zone is the most populated attractor. | The 2010-2025 trend continues. No major democratic wave or shock reverses the pattern. The "Third Wave" recedes further. |
| Stabilization / Plateau Mean L holds at ~46-50, ~32-36% free | 0.30 | Hybrid zone velocity is near zero (+0.39/yr, not significantly different from zero in starting-zone analysis). The "sticky basin" hypothesis: the hybrid zone acts as an attractor that slows further decline. S1 retention = 93.1% at 5 yr, meaning consolidated democracies (Nordics, NZ, Canada) are stable anchors. The 2025 frame may represent a new equilibrium rather than a transient. | Decline slows as stable democracies hold. The global mean oscillates in the 46-52 range, creating a "democratic plateau" below the 2010 peak but above the 1989 level. |
| Recovery / Fourth Wave Mean L rises to ~52-58, >38% free | 0.15 | P(Partly Free to Free) = 9.2% per period. Liberty basin velocity = +1.30/yr (significantly positive). Historical precedent: the 1945-1989 arc took 44 years. But: the GMM liberty basin component (C5) weight = 0.083 (only 8.3% of all observations), suggesting full democracy remains rare globally. A "Fourth Wave" would require multiple simultaneous recoveries. | US or major democracy recovers (Poland 2023 pattern at scale). EU democratic conditionality holds. A geopolitical shock discredits authoritarian models. Historically, waves follow wars or systemic crises. |
| Other / Discontinuity | 0.05 | Tail risk: global conflict, AI governance disruption, climate-driven state failure, or a pattern not captured by 225 years of data. | Non-linear systemic break. The six-frame arc is not predictive of fundamentally novel dynamics. |
| Total | 1.00 | ||