Resource Rents Are the Strongest Predictor of Democratic Failure

Coefficient estimates from cross-national OLS regression on Liberty Score

Liberty Score = β₀ + β₁(Resource Rents) + β₂(log GDP/cap) + β₃(log Pop) + β₄(Colonial Heritage) + β₅(Region FE) + ε

R² = 0.62 · Adj R² = 0.58 · N = 91 · F = 14.8 (p < 0.001)

Resource rents have the largest standardized effect (|β*| = 0.48) -- controlling for income, population size, colonial history, and geography.

Source: Political Topology Dataset, CGL-PT-A14 · Cambridge Governance Labs 2026