Governance Topology — Thesis Audit Synthesis

The Audit Verdict

Claims Confirmed

Claims Refuted

Claims Partially Valid

Tasks Completed

Bottom line: The thesis's direction is correct — the US is declining across every major democracy index, and V-Dem reclassified it as an "electoral autocracy" in September 2025. But the magnitude is overstated: the headline claims (L=48, -18/yr velocity (2yr window; standardized: -4.2/yr at 10yr), 0% tyranny with data-driven parameters (post-2006: P(L<50|15yr)=69%), reserve currency premium of 2,080bp) require substantial revision. The recalibrated narrative is "serious democratic erosion requiring vigilance" — not "critical instability zone."

Claim-by-Claim Audit Results

Tristable Dynamics (upgraded from bistable) Original Refuted

Mean reversion k ≈ 0 at every stage. AR(1) equilibrium at L*=81.6 suggests three attractor basins (tyranny, hybrid trap, democratic plateau), not the original bistable two-basin model. System is tristable. Bimodal distribution is a persistence artifact.

Event Horizon at L≈52-55 Revised

Three methods converge on L≈52-55 as the Critical Instability Zone. Recovery rate below this threshold: 3.0% (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%). The original 12% figure approximately matches L=50 in 1995-2025 only.

US Liberty = 48 Unconfirmed

Mean across 7 indices: 76.6. Credible range: 57-84. V-Dem reclassification supports decline direction. TCF Democracy Meter at 57 is closest independent measurement.

⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment. Published indices: FH 83/100 (2024), V-Dem LDI ≈65–72 scaled. Divergence reflects PTI's faster update cycle and institutional constraint weighting.

US Velocity -18/yr (2yr window; standardized: -4.2/yr at 10yr) Window-Dependent

Confirmed in 2-year window (2023-2025). Standardized: -4.2/yr at 10yr. At 10yr window with credible L values: -2 to -4/yr. Still the fastest-declining consolidated democracy even at moderate estimate.

0% with data-driven parameters; post-2006: P(L<50|15yr)=69% Original Not Reproducible

Data-driven MC: P(tyranny) ≈ 0%. Thesis σ values were stipulated without empirical basis, inflated 2-7x. AR(1) mean reversion dominates. The original 62% is a phantom created by wrong parameters. However, post-2006 structural break dynamics yield P(L<50|15yr)=69%.

Liberty-Yield β=-0.35, R²=0.37 Confirmed

Slope and R² reproduce exactly. Intercept corrected to 33.05 (was 18.7). Log-linear specification fits better (R²=0.51). The relationship is real and economically meaningful.

Treasury: Reserve Currency Premium of 2,080bp Overstated

Reserve currency premium of 2,080bp explains most of the US yield anomaly. Model with reserve: 3.8% predicted vs 4.5% actual. Defensible claim: 200-580bp over 5-10 years.

Great Decoupling Supported

r dropped from 0.79 to 0.57. 39 capable autocracies identified. Capability ≠ freedom is empirically supported. One of the thesis's strongest contributions.

Stage 5 Momentum: pre-2006: +38%, post-2006: -23.3% Misleading

Original +21.4% confirmed as overall average, but misleading. Structural break: +40% pre-1971, pre-2006: +38%, post-2006: -23.3%. Historical averages mask a regime change in Stage 5 dynamics.

Markov Property Rejected

Path dependence significant at Stages 2, 5, 6. Stage 6: declining arrivals -77.8% vs improving +25.5%. Direction of travel matters more than current state.

Shock σ = 3-8 by Stage All Wrong

Data: σ = 0.45-4.45. Thesis overstates by 2-7x at every stage. Stage 1: thesis 3, actual 0.45 (6.7x). All distributions non-normal with heavy tails.

78% Holdout Accuracy Marginal

Persistence baseline achieves 73%. Stage model adds +5pp at best. Out-of-sample backtesting (3 windows) confirms persistence beats all models.

Recalibration Framework

How thesis conclusions change across the credible range of US Liberty scores:

Metric	L=48 (Thesis)	L=57 (TCF)	L=65 (V-Dem low)	L=70 (V-Dem mid)	L=75 (Cross-index)	L=84 (FH official)
Stage	S6: Soft Dictatorship	S5: Electoral Autocracy	S4: Competitive Auth.	S3: Democratic Erosion	S3: Democratic Erosion	S2: Early Warning
Velocity	-18.0/yr (2yr)	-3.7/yr (10yr)	-2.9/yr (10yr)	-2.4/yr (10yr)	-1.9/yr (10yr)	-1.0/yr (10yr)
Event Horizon	BELOW	BELOW	Above	Above	Above	Above
Hist. reversal to L≥70	54%	71%	86%	82%	91%	99%
Predicted yield	16.2%	13.1%	10.3%	8.5%	6.8%	3.6%
P(L<25 by 2040)	0.0% (data σ)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Narrative	Critical instability zone	Crisis zone	Serious erosion	Declining democracy	Declining democracy	Stressed but intact

V-Dem reclassification (Sep 2025): V-Dem classified the US as an "electoral autocracy" — the strongest external validation of the thesis's direction. The TCF Democracy Meter at 57/100 provides a second independent data point. However, V-Dem's continuous score (75) and FH (84) remain above the thesis's L=48.

Phase-by-Phase Results

Phase 1: Foundation Audit

Task	Finding	Severity
1.1 Crosswalk	67% match (18/27). Large deviations: South Africa (-14), Turkey (-10), Venezuela (-9)	CRITICAL
1.2 Event Horizon	Threshold at L≈52-55 (Critical Instability Zone). Recovery: 3.0% (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%).	CRITICAL
1.3 Stage 5	pre-2006: +38%, post-2006: -23.3%. Overall +21.4% confirmed but misleading. Global break ~2000 (F=21.2); stage-specific 2006.	CRITICAL
1.4 Velocity	-18/yr confirmed (2yr window; standardized: -4.2/yr at 10yr). 15yr: -3.07. 0th percentile	CRITICAL
1.5 Holdout	Persistence baseline 73%. Thesis 78%. Marginal +5pp skill	HIGH

Phase 2: Model Hardening

Task	Finding	Severity
2.1 Shock σ	ALL thesis σ stipulated without empirical basis, wrong by 2-7x. Stage 1: 0.45 (thesis 3). Stage 5: 2.45 (thesis 7)	CRITICAL
2.2 Markov	REJECTED at Stages 2, 5, 6. Stage 6: -78% declining vs +26% improving	CRITICAL
2.3 Regression	β=-0.35 and R²=0.37 confirmed. Intercept corrected: 33.05 (was 18.7)	HIGH
2.4 AIC/BIC	AR(1) beats ALL stage models. ΔAIC > 300. R²=0.872	CRITICAL
2.5 Mean reversion	k ≈ 0 everywhere. "Two deep wells" not detectable	CRITICAL

Phase 3: US Case Hardening

Task	Finding	Severity
3.1 Cross-validation	Mean across 7 indices: 76.6. L=48 is 22-36pts below every measure	FATAL
3.2 Institutions	56/100. Military (80), Fed (65) strong. Congress (32) compromised	HIGH
3.3 Matched comparison	71% of countries at L=45-55 recovered. Best US analogue: France 1958	HIGH
3.4 Elections	Base rate ~7% reversal in electoral autocracies. US has structural advantages	MEDIUM
3.5 Reserve currency	Reserve status explains most of US yield anomaly. Model: 3.8% vs actual 4.5%	HIGH

Phase 4: Missing Evidence

Task	Finding	Severity
4.1 Recalibration	V-Dem reclassified US as electoral autocracy Sep 2025. TCF: 57. Range: 57-84	CRITICAL
4.2 Monte Carlo	Data-driven σ → P(tyranny) ≈ 0%. Thesis σ inflates by 185x	CRITICAL
4.3 Backtesting	Persistence beats all models in 3/3 windows. US 84→48 = only 30+ pt miss	HIGH
4.4 Counter-args	3/7 strong (CA5, CA6, CA7). Thesis 2-3x too aggressive	HIGH

Counter-Argument Assessment

#	Counter-Argument	Strength	Disposition
CA1	US institutions uniquely resilient	Medium-Strong	Acknowledged with caveats. Military (80/100) and Fed (65/100) are genuine stabilizers the thesis ignores.
CA2	2024 election was free and fair	Medium	Reframed. Correct for current state, but thesis is about trajectory. The question is 2028/2032.
CA3	Freedom House Western bias	Weak	Dismissed. If FH has pro-Western bias, it overstates the US score. All 7 indices confirm decline direction.
CA4	Markets are efficient	Medium	Acknowledged with lag model. Historical yield lags: 3-12 years. Current pricing tells us nothing about 2030.
CA5	Confuses regime type with policy	Strong	Must operationalize taxonomy: policy reversals vs. institutional degradation vs. democratic infrastructure damage.
CA6	Mean reversion in 248-yr democracies	Strong	98% of decline episodes from L≥80 in long-standing democracies recovered. Must model democratic tenure.
CA7	Economic growth stabilizes democracy	Medium-Strong	No democracy above $15K GDP/capita has collapsed. US at $85K is historically unprecedented territory.

What Survives vs. What Doesn't

Survives the Audit

The dataset — 91 countries, 225 years, 1,656 observations is a genuine contribution
Liberty-Yield relationship — β=-0.35, R²=0.37 reproduces and is economically meaningful
The Great Decoupling — capability ≠ freedom is empirically supported
Extreme velocity cataloging — US decline stands out even at moderate L estimates
Credit lag insight — 3-12 year lag between governance and yield repricing
Path dependence — direction of travel matters (strengthens US concern)
V-Dem alignment — thesis direction validated by reclassification

Does Not Survive

Original bistable dynamics (refuted) — no statistical support for K=2; tristable three-basin model (tyranny, hybrid trap, democratic plateau) now supersedes
Event Horizon at L≈52-55 — Critical Instability Zone; recovery: 3.0% (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%)
Original 62% tyranny by 2040 — 0% with data-driven parameters; post-2006: P(L<50|15yr)=69%. Built on stipulated σ values (no empirical basis) and missing mean reversion
L=48 as established fact — 9-36 points below published indices
Original 650bp Treasury mispricing — reserve currency premium of 2,080bp explains most of the gap
Stage-based predictions — AR(1) with 3 parameters outperforms stage models with 9

Gap Resolution Status

#	Gap	Severity	Status
G1	US FH 48 is author's estimate	CRITICAL	Partially Resolved Credible range 57-84
G2	-18/yr velocity over 2 years	CRITICAL	Resolved Bootstrap CIs; 10yr: -2 to -4/yr
G3	Stage 5 contradiction	HIGH	Resolved Structural break identified
G4	Event Horizon revised to L≈52-55	HIGH	Revised 3.0% recovery (95% CI: 0.7-6.0%); three methods converge
G5	Shock σ stipulated (without empirical basis)	HIGH	Resolved Data-driven σ estimated
G6	Ternary constraint axiomatic	MODERATE	Open
G7	Markov assumption	MODERATE	Rejected Path dependence confirmed
G8	No country >100M comparison	MODERATE	Open
G9	Selection bias in comparators	MODERATE	Resolved Matched comparison built
G10	Cross-sectional regression	MODERATE	Partial Slope confirmed; panel FE not run
G11	Reserve currency structural break	MODERATE	Resolved
G12	Pre-1972 crosswalk	LOW	Open
G13	78% holdout unsubstantiated	LOW	Resolved Marginal +5pp over persistence

Audit Limitations

Python stdlib only

All analysis used base Python (csv, math, statistics, random). No numpy, scipy, or statsmodels. Bootstrap CIs approximate. Regression SEs assume homoskedasticity.

Thesis's own data only

Did not access raw FH or V-Dem microdata. Did not merge external economic data. 67% crosswalk match suggests data quality issues for ~1/3 of observations.

AR(1) is also a simplification

The AR(1) that "beats" stage models is itself a low-dimensional linear model. It cannot capture regime changes, structural breaks, or nonlinear dynamics.

Small N for US claims

The US has only 13 observations in the dataset (1800-2025). Any US-specific statistical claim has very wide confidence intervals.

Recommended Next Steps for Author

#	Action	Priority	Effort
1	Wait for FH 2026 and V-Dem 2026 official reports	CRITICAL	1-2 months
2	Replace stipulated σ (note: all values were stipulated without empirical basis) with data-driven estimates in Monte Carlo	CRITICAL	1 day
3	Add AR(1) mean-reversion force to projections	CRITICAL	1 day
4	Present recalibration table as core sensitivity analysis	HIGH	1 day
5	Operationalize policy vs. structural erosion taxonomy (CA5)	HIGH	1 week
6	Model democratic tenure as stabilizing factor (CA6)	HIGH	1 week
7	Add GDP per capita as covariate (CA7)	HIGH	3 days
8	Reframe Monte Carlo as distribution + scenarios	HIGH	2 days
9	Seek external peer review (pol sci + fin econ)	MEDIUM	2-4 weeks
10	Publish crosswalk formula and replication code	MEDIUM	1 day