Scoring note: Country scores labelled "L" in this project use the Political Topology Index (PTI), the framework's own real-time institutional assessment, which may diverge from published indices such as Freedom House or V-Dem. Where divergence is material the text notes both scores. See Methodology for details.
48
Global Mean
Liberty Score
34%
Countries
Rated "Free"
19
Consecutive Years
of Decline
3.0%
Recovery Rate
Below Event Horizon
8
Eight-Step
Erosion Pathway
Where to Begin

Recommended Reading Path

New to Governance Topology? Read the executive summary first →

1

The Tristable Basin

Understand the three attractor basins — liberty, tyranny, and chaos — that govern every political trajectory.

2

The Eight-Step Pathway

The sequential erosion pathway from democracy to tyranny, with empirical stage durations and momentum indicators.

3

US Current Position

Where the United States stands in February 2026 — liberty score, stage classification, and velocity of change.

4

The Sovereign Spread

How credit markets price democratic erosion — and why they are systematically late to reprice governance risk.

5

Country Deep Dive

Interactive ternary trajectories, liberty timelines, and human capability analysis for all 91 nations (1800–2025).

Explore

All Series

Model

10

Core basin model, stability wells, escape velocity, eight-step pathway, state transitions, and empirical validation.

US Case

8

America’s current position, 225-year trajectory, velocity analysis, probability cone, and intervention points.

Evidence

17

The global democratic recession, country profiles (China, India), comparative trajectories, regional analysis, the great decoupling, and data explorers.

Stakes

12

How credit markets price democratic erosion: bond vigilantes, sovereign spreads, the price of tyranny, and central bank independence.

Maps

14

Global liberty, event horizons, capable autocracies, velocity of decline, and regional deep dives.

Graphics

23

Autocrat survival curves, kingmaker dynamics, thresholds, capital flight, and opposition networks.

HCI Stories

35

Interactive visualizations exploring the Human Capabilities Index: the great decoupling, capable autocracies, democratic recession, transition dynamics, and economic implications.

Reference

9

Methodology, canonical parameters, model diagnostics, downloads, and glossary.

Publications

24

Complete book, 10 academic working papers, 12 media briefs, data descriptor, and replication code. All available as HTML and PDF.

Browse All

Complete Table of Contents

Model

  1. The Tristable Basin
  2. Stability Wells
  3. Escape Velocity
  4. The Eight-Step Pathway
  5. Eight Steps (Economist Edition)
  6. State Transitions & Probabilities
  7. The Empirical Basin
  8. Stage Duration & Momentum
  9. The Game of Three Players
  10. Model Summary

US Case

  1. Current Position (Feb 2026)
  2. 225 Years of Development
  3. Velocity of Change
  4. Probability Cone 2026–2040
  5. What Levers Remain?
  6. Reversal Factors
  7. USA Timeline
  8. Early Warning Dashboard

Evidence

  1. The Global Democratic Recession
  2. China: The Absorbing State
  3. India: At the Ridgeline
  4. Comparative Trajectories
  5. Seven Regions, Seven Stories
  6. The Great Decoupling
  7. Event Horizon × Capabilities
  8. Liberty vs. Capabilities
  9. Data Explorer: 195 Countries
  10. Data Explorer: 225 Years
  11. Data Explorer: 48 Countries
  12. Ternary Phase Space
  13. Historical Trajectory Explorer
  14. Country Deep Dive (91 Nations)
  15. Falling Faster
  16. The Cliff
  17. Two Paths
  18. Where They Stand

Stakes

  1. Executive Synthesis
  2. When Bond Vigilantes Sleep
  3. Four Roads From Ruin
  4. Central Bank Independence
  5. The American Exception
  6. Sovereign Credit Market Note
  7. The Sovereign Spread
  8. China: The Debt Trap
  9. The Price of Tyranny
  10. The Great Divergence
  11. The Autocracy Discount
  12. The Justice Dividend

Maps

  1. Global Liberty 2025
  2. Event Horizon
  3. Capable Autocracies
  4. Democratic Recession
  5. Six Frames
  6. Velocity of Decline
  7. Europe Fracture Lines
  8. Asia-Pacific
  9. Africa & MENA
  10. Population-Weighted
  11. Rich States, Captive Peoples
  12. Attractor Basins
  13. Autocrat’s Playbook
  14. Map Synthesis

Graphics

  1. Autocrat’s Survival Calculus
  2. Kingmaker’s Choice
  3. The Threshold
  4. Capture Sequence
  5. Event Horizon
  6. Coup Outcomes
  7. Third Wave
  8. Winning Coalition
  9. Legislature Capture
  10. Capital Flight
  11. Opposition Suppression
  12. International Response
  13. Youth Bulge
  14. Religious Institutions
  15. Stages: Democracy to Tyranny
  16. Ternary Coordinates
  17. The Three Vertices
  18. Attractor Dynamics
  19. Event Horizon & Recovery
  20. Transition Matrix
  21. Time in the Unstable Middle
  22. Two Failure Modes
  23. Intervention Timing

HCI Stories

  1. The Great Decoupling
  2. Capable Autocracies
  3. Seven Domains, Seven Gaps
  4. The Capability Trap
  5. Three Basins of Attraction
  6. The Event Horizon
  7. Velocity of Decline
  8. Transition Probabilities
  9. The Democratic Recession
  10. Regional Divergence
  11. 225 Years in 91 Trajectories
  12. Population-Weighted Liberty
  13. The Price of Tyranny
  14. Bond Vigilantes Sleep
  15. The Przeworski Threshold
  16. The Eight Steps Down
  17. Autocrat Survival Curves
  18. The Hybrid Trap
  19. Judicial Independence as Chokepoint
  20. Recovery Asymmetry
  21. Justice Economics
  22. A Dollar of Justice Returns Three to Eight
  23. The Long and Short of Reform
  24. The $2.6 Trillion Tax Nobody Voted For
  25. Georgia’s Anti-Corruption Dividend
  26. Seven Countries, Seven Paths to Prosperity
  27. Institutions Buy Investment
  28. Nine Trillion Dollars, Locked in Legal Limbo
  29. Honest Governments Collect More
  30. Faster Courts, Faster Growth
  31. Estonia’s 2% Efficiency Gain
  32. The Hidden Tax: Corruption vs. Taxation
  33. Democracy Pays — Eventually
  34. Justice Predicts Everything Else
  35. Talent Follows Trust
  36. The World Invests $30 Billion a Year in Governance

Reference

  1. Methodology
  2. HCI Framework: 15 Indicators
  3. Canonical Parameters
  4. Volatility Calibration
  5. Model Diagnostics
  6. Downloads & Data
  7. Glossary
  8. About CGL
  9. Stakeholder Graphics

Publications · 24 items

  1. Publication Index — Full catalog of all publications
  2. Book: Political Topology (Complete) · PDF
  3. A01: Tristable Dynamics · PDF
  4. A07: The Dataset · PDF
  5. M01: State of Global Liberty 2025 · PDF
  6. M11: Methodology Guide · PDF
  7. D1: Data Descriptor · PDF
  8. + 18 more papers and briefs →
Resources

Downloads

Data Files

Documents

Replication Code

Graphics

Reference

Resources

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