Cumulative GDP per capita gain following democratization, with 95% confidence interval. Based on Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo & Robinson (2019).
Democratization produces a cumulative 20% GDP per capita gain over 25 years. The effect is gradual but relentless — compounding at roughly 1% per year. The confidence band narrows over time as the effect becomes more statistically robust.
The first five years show modest and uncertain gains, which is why impatient observers often conclude that democracy “doesn’t work.” But the data are unambiguous at longer horizons: by year 10, the central estimate is +10% — equivalent to a generation of investment. By year 25, the full +20% effect is well outside the confidence band’s lower bound, meaning the probability that democracy produces zero growth is negligible.
This is not a story about any single policy. It is about the compound returns of institutional quality: free press reducing corruption, independent courts protecting property, competitive elections disciplining rent-seekers. Each channel is small; the aggregate is transformative.