Governance Topology · Duration & Momentum Analysis
How Long Do Countries Stay?
Median duration and net momentum for each of the 8 stages, derived from 556 country-stage spells across 91 countries (1800-2025). The data reveals three attractor basins—the tyranny well and democratic plateau with long residence times, and the hybrid trap with moderate retention and high volatility.
35 yrs
Stage 1 Median Duration
7-10 yrs
Stages 2-7 Median
48 yrs
Stage 8 Median Duration
95%
Stage 1 Retention
84%
Stage 8 Retention
⚠️ CLASSIFICATION NOTE: Zone velocities use ending-zone assignment (countries classified by period-end score). Starting-zone assignment yields materially different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr starting-zone vs −0.64/yr ending-zone). This sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution. The "gravitational pull" narrative depends on the classification method chosen.
COMPLETE STAGE STATISTICS
| # | Stage | FH Range | Median Duration | Retention Rate | Net Momentum | Primary Exit Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Consolidated Democracy | 85-100 | 35 years | 94.7% | →-5% | 95% stay · 5% → S2 |
2 | Early Warning | 80-84 | 7 years | 21.2% | ↑+49% | 64% → S1 ↑ · 21% stay · 15% ↓ |
3 | Democratic Erosion | 70-79 | 10 years | 47.5% | ↑+25% | 39% ↑ · 48% stay · 14% ↓ |
4 | Competitive Authoritarian | 60-69 | 10 years | 45.1% | ↑+29% | 42% ↑ · 45% stay · 13% ↓ |
5 | Electoral Autocracy🇺🇸 | 50-59 | 10 years | 45.6% | ↑+21% | 38% ↑ · 46% stay · 17% ↓ |
6 | Soft Dictatorship | 40-49 | 7 years | 41.3% | ↑+11% | 35% ↑ · 41% stay · 24% ↓ |
7 | Consolidated Autocracy | 25-39 | 10 years | 52.4% | ↓-3% | 23% ↑ · 52% stay · 25% → S8 |
8 | Totalitarianism | 0-24 | 48 years | 84.3% | ↑+16% | 84% stay · 16% → S7 (only) |
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES (Stage 5, L=48)
Historically, countries at Stage 5 have a median duration of 10 years before moving. But the US has unusual characteristics: (1) velocity of -18/yr (2yr window; 10yr: -4.2/yr) is 6x the historical average for this stage, (2) the historical momentum (pre-2006: +38%, post-2006: -23.3%) shows a structural break—not normal conditions, but active executive capture. At current velocity, the US will transit through Stage 5 in under 1 year, not 10. The "typical" Stage 5 country isn't plummeting at coup-level speed.
THE BASIN PHYSICS CONFIRMED
The data proves the tristable basin model: Stage 1 (Liberty basin) and Stage 8 (Tyranny basin) are deep gravitational wells—countries stay for decades (35-48 years median) with 85-95% retention rates. Stages 2-7 span the hybrid trap—moderate residence times (7-10 years), variable retention (21-52%), and high volatility.
Critically: Stage 7 is the tipping point. It's the only middle stage with net downward momentum (-3%). Once a country reaches Stage 7, the pull toward Stage 8 (Totalitarianism) exceeds the pull back toward liberty. The US, at Stage 5 with velocity -18/yr, will reach Stage 7 within 2 years at current trajectory.
Critically: Stage 7 is the tipping point. It's the only middle stage with net downward momentum (-3%). Once a country reaches Stage 7, the pull toward Stage 8 (Totalitarianism) exceeds the pull back toward liberty. The US, at Stage 5 with velocity -18/yr, will reach Stage 7 within 2 years at current trajectory.
⚠ Temporal Comparability Note
This analysis combines data from three distinct source periods with different measurement methodologies: author estimates (pre-1972), original Freedom House scoring (1972-2005), and revised FH methodology (2006-2025). Era-specific sensitivity analysis largely confirms the pooled results. See fh-sensitivity-results.md for details.
Source: Governance Topology Master Database · 556 country-stage spells across 91 countries (1800-2025) · Duration = median years in stage before exit · Retention = % remaining in same stage per observation · Net momentum = (% moving up) − (% moving down)