The Great Divergence

Europe: The Compound Return Engine

Mean Liberty 85 · GDP $41k · LE 81 yrs · Poverty 0.4%

Europe's 23 tracked countries form the strongest case that liberty compounds. The Nordic cluster (Norway 97, Finland 96, Denmark 95) achieves the highest Liberty scores and the highest life satisfaction globally (7.3–7.7). Even the lower end — Bulgaria (66), Hungary (63), Serbia (48) — enjoys GDP above $18k and near-universal literacy. The EU creates a governance floor that autocratic gravity struggles to breach. Hungary's Orbán has pushed it down 21 points but can't go further without leaving the EU — and the economic cost of doing so acts as a structural brake.

Asia: The Great Variance

Mean Liberty 38 · GDP $21k · LE 75 yrs · Poverty 2.6%

Asia contains the full spectrum. Taiwan (91) and Japan (89) sit alongside Afghanistan (3) and Myanmar (5). Singapore (L: 47, GDP: $87.9k) is the global outlier — extraordinary prosperity with restricted liberty — but it remains the exception among 17 countries. The more common pattern is China (L: 5, GDP: $19.1k): impressive growth that hits a ceiling. No Asian autocracy exceeds $26k GDP except Singapore and the petrostates. South Korea's trajectory — from 28 to 83 — remains the region's most compelling proof that democratic transition can unlock sustained growth beyond the middle-income trap.

MENA: Wealth Without Freedom

Mean Liberty 19 · GDP $18k · LE 76 yrs · Poverty 1.0%

MENA defies the simple liberty=prosperity equation — on the surface. UAE ($60k, L: 22) and Saudi Arabia ($44.3k, L: 7) show that commodity wealth can inflate GDP without freedom. But beneath the headline numbers, life satisfaction tells a different story: Saudi scores 6.5, below Costa Rica (7.1, GDP: $16.2k). Lebanon (2.7) and Egypt (4.3) reveal what happens when petrodollars don't reach the population. Israel (60) is the region's only partly-free economy and also its most diversified. The MENA model works for elites — not citizens.

Sub-Saharan Africa: The Heaviest Price

Mean Liberty 32 · GDP $4.3k · LE 64 yrs · Poverty 30%

This region bears the steepest cost of governance failure. DRC (L: 15, GDP: $900, Poverty: 72%) is the dataset's floor. Somalia (L: 8, LE: 57) represents near-total state collapse. The pattern is consistent: every 10-point increase in Liberty correlates with roughly $2,000 more GDP, 3 more years of life, and 8 fewer percentage points of extreme poverty. Botswana (L: 71, GDP: $15.4k) stands as proof that African countries can break out — but it required decades of institutional investment, diamond revenue management, and democratic continuity that most neighbours lack.

Latin America: The Fragile Middle

Mean Liberty 47 · GDP $13k · LE 76 yrs · Poverty 10.3%

Latin America clusters in the volatile middle of the Liberty spectrum. Chile (82), Costa Rica (86), and Uruguay (91) demonstrate that sustained freedom yields first-world human development outcomes — Costa Rica's life satisfaction (7.1) exceeds most European nations. But the region's gravity pulls toward instability: Venezuela's collapse from 68 to 8 destroyed $30k+ in per-capita GDP. Haiti (8, GDP: $1.4k, Poverty: 48%) shows the basement. Brazil (72) and Colombia (53) are the critical swing states — their trajectories will determine whether Latin America converges upward or fragments further.

Eurasia: Soviet Legacy, Authoritarian Present

Mean Liberty 26 · GDP $16k · LE 73 yrs · HCI 85

Post-Soviet states share a distinctive signature: high human capital (HCI 85) with low liberty (mean 26). Russia (L: 10, HCI: 87.4) and Belarus (L: 5, HCI: 86.4) have nearly Western-level education and literacy — but their GDP ($26k, $18k) lags far behind equally educated European peers (Estonia: L: 93, GDP: $35k). The Soviet educational inheritance is real but depreciating: without institutional reform, human capital produces diminishing returns. Moldova (55), Georgia (38), and Ukraine (35) sit in the hybrid trap — their tilt toward EU or Russian orbit will determine whether the Soviet legacy compounds or decays.