Downloads & Data
All datasets, replication code, documents, and graphics from the Governance Topology project are freely available.
Data Files
| File | Description | Format | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📊political-topology-data.xlsx | Complete 91-country dataset with Liberty, Tyranny, and Chaos scores (1800–2025) | XLSX | ~171 KB |
| 📊political-topology-flat.csv | Flat CSV export of the complete dataset for statistical software | CSV | ~87 KB |
| 📊human_capabilities_index.xlsx | Human Capabilities Index scores across countries and time periods | XLSX | ~120 KB |
Documents
| File | Description | Format | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📄political-topology-methodology.docx | Full methodology paper describing the ternary constraint, basin model, and eight-step progression | DOCX | ~14 KB |
| 📄eight-step-model.docx | Detailed description of the eight-step institutional erosion model with indicators | DOCX | ~17 KB |
| 📄the-great-decoupling.docx | Analysis of the divergence between state capability and political freedom | DOCX | ~18 KB |
| 📄the-great-decoupling-one-pager.docx | One-page executive summary of the Great Decoupling thesis | DOCX | ~10 KB |
| 📄the-great-decoupling.pptx | Presentation slides for the Great Decoupling analysis | PPTX | ~393 KB |
Replication Code
All analysis code is written in Python using standard library only (csv, math, statistics, random). No numpy/scipy dependencies.
📋Canonical Parameters Reference — Definitive stage definitions, ternary constraint, event horizon thresholds, and all model parameters
Foundation Audit
- phase1-foundation-audit.py— Foundation audit main script
- fix01_unit_root_tests.py— Unit root statistical tests
- fix02_gdp_yield.py— GDP-yield relationship analysis
- fix03_us_sensitivity.py— US score sensitivity analysis
Model Hardening
- phase2-model-hardening.py— Model hardening main script
- b1_gmm_model_comparison.py— GMM model comparison
- b2_potential_function.py— Potential function estimation
- b4_survival_analysis.py— Survival analysis
- b8_stage_derivation.py— Stage derivation
- b10_fh_sensitivity.py— Freedom House sensitivity
US Case Studies
- phase3-us-case-hardening.py— US case hardening
- rp01-rp06-causality-steps.py— Causality analysis
- rp02-rp04-us-tyranny.py— US tyranny trajectory
- rp03-rp12-bootstrap-bistability.py— Bootstrap bistability
- rp07_rp11_analysis.py— Extended analysis
- rp09-rp05-hci-sample.py— HCI sample analysis
Missing Evidence & Validation
- phase4-missing-evidence.py— Missing evidence analysis
- fix04_gmm_bootstrap_1000.py— GMM bootstrap (1000 iterations)
- fix05_potential_bootstrap_1000.py— Potential function bootstrap
- fix06_validation_tests.py— Validation tests
- fix07_event_horizon_reconciliation.py— Event horizon reconciliation
Phase 5 Recalibration
- phase5-gdp-covariate.py— GDP per capita covariate analysis for yield model
- phase5-recalibrated-monte-carlo.py— Recalibrated Monte Carlo simulation with GDP controls
Econometric Models
- a4_statistical_inference.py— Statistical inference
- c3_c5_c6_econometric.py— Econometric models
- c4_oos_prediction.py— Out-of-sample prediction
- c7_irt_measurement.py— IRT measurement model
- c8_oecd_monte_carlo.py— OECD Monte Carlo simulation
- c10_uncertainty_audit.py— Uncertainty audit
- yield_model_analysis.py— Yield model analysis
Utility Scripts
- generate_architecture.py— Generate thesis architecture diagram
- generate_architecture_diagram.py— Generate architecture diagram (v2)
