Downloads & Data
All datasets, replication code, and publications from the Governance Topology project are freely available for download.
5 data files10 academic papers12 media publications33 replication scripts1 book
Data Files
Core datasets covering 91 countries from 1800–2025.
| File | Description | Format |
|---|---|---|
| political-topology-data.xlsx | Complete 91-country dataset with Liberty, Tyranny, and Chaos scores (1800–2025) | XLSX |
| political-topology-flat.csv | Flat CSV export of the complete dataset for statistical software | CSV |
| human_capabilities_index.xlsx | Human Capabilities Index scores across countries and time periods | XLSX |
| hci_data.json | HCI composite data in JSON format for web visualizations | JSON |
| hci-reference.csv | HCI reference table with current scores, HDI, education, life expectancy | CSV |
Book
| Title | Description | Links |
|---|---|---|
| Political Topology: The Structure and Dynamics of Political Freedom | Complete book covering the ternary constraint model, basin dynamics, eight-step erosion, governance yield, and the Great Decoupling | PDF|HTML |
Individual chapters:
| Chapter | Link |
|---|---|
| Front Matter & Introduction | HTML |
| Part I — The Ternary Constraint | HTML |
| Part II — Basin Dynamics | HTML |
| Part III — The Eight Steps | HTML |
| Part IV — Governance Yield & Decoupling | HTML |
| Part V — The American Case | HTML |
| Back Matter & References | HTML |
Academic Papers
Working papers from the Governance Topology research programme.
| ID | Title | Links |
|---|---|---|
| A01 | Tristable Dynamics of Political Freedom: A Ternary Phase-Space Model | PDF|HTML |
| A02 | The Event Horizon of Democratic Decline: Identifying Critical Thresholds | PDF|HTML |
| A03 | The Great Decoupling: State Capability vs. Political Freedom | PDF|HTML |
| A04 | Governance Yield: Why Markets Should Price Political Freedom | PDF|HTML |
| A05 | The Eight-Stage Model of Institutional Erosion | PDF|HTML |
| A06 | Path Dependence in Democratic Transitions | PDF|HTML |
| A07 | Political Topology Dataset: Construction and Validation | PDF|HTML |
| A08 | The Autocrat’s Survival Calculus | PDF|HTML |
| A09 | The Human Capabilities Index: A New Measure of State Capability | PDF|HTML |
| A10 | Reserve Currency and the Governance Premium | PDF|HTML |
Media Publications
Accessible summaries and analyses for policymakers, investors, and the public.
| ID | Title | Links |
|---|---|---|
| M01 | State of Global Liberty 2025 | PDF|HTML |
| M02 | The Great Decoupling | PDF|HTML |
| M03 | Eight Steps to Tyranny | PDF|HTML |
| M04 | Bond Vigilantes and Governance Risk | PDF|HTML |
| M05 | The American Exception | PDF|HTML |
| M06 | The Autocrat’s Survival Calculus | PDF|HTML |
| M07 | Atlas of Political Freedom | PDF|HTML |
| M08 | Regional Deep Dives | PDF|HTML |
| M09 | China: The Governance-Debt Nexus | PDF|HTML |
| M10 | Thesis Audit & Methodology Review | PDF|HTML |
| M11 | Methodology Overview | PDF|HTML |
| M12 | Sovereign Credit Market Note | PDF|HTML |
Data Publication
| ID | Title | Links |
|---|---|---|
| D1 | Political Topology Dataset: A Ternary Governance Dataset for 91 Countries (1800–2025) | PDF|HTML |
Replication Code
All analysis code is written in Python using standard library only (csv, math, statistics, random). No numpy/scipy dependencies.
Foundation Analysis
- phase1-foundation-audit.py— Foundation analysis main script
- fix01_unit_root_tests.py— Unit root statistical tests
- fix02_gdp_yield.py— GDP-yield relationship analysis
- fix03_us_sensitivity.py— US score sensitivity analysis
Model Hardening
- phase2-model-hardening.py— Model hardening main script
- b1_gmm_model_comparison.py— GMM model comparison
- b2_potential_function.py— Potential function estimation
- b4_survival_analysis.py— Survival analysis
- b8_stage_derivation.py— Stage derivation
- b10_fh_sensitivity.py— Freedom House sensitivity
US Case Studies
- phase3-us-case-hardening.py— US case hardening
- rp01-rp06-causality-steps.py— Causality analysis
- rp02-rp04-us-tyranny.py— US tyranny trajectory
- rp03-rp12-bootstrap-bistability.py— Bootstrap bistability
- rp07_rp11_analysis.py— Extended analysis
- rp09-rp05-hci-sample.py— HCI sample analysis
Missing Evidence & Validation
- phase4-missing-evidence.py— Missing evidence analysis
- fix04_gmm_bootstrap_1000.py— GMM bootstrap (1000 iterations)
- fix05_potential_bootstrap_1000.py— Potential function bootstrap
- fix06_validation_tests.py— Validation tests
- fix07_event_horizon_reconciliation.py— Event horizon reconciliation
Phase 5 Recalibration
- phase5-gdp-covariate.py— GDP per capita covariate analysis for yield model
- phase5-recalibrated-monte-carlo.py— Recalibrated Monte Carlo simulation with GDP controls
Econometric Models
- a4_statistical_inference.py— Statistical inference
- c3_c5_c6_econometric.py— Econometric models
- c4_oos_prediction.py— Out-of-sample prediction
- c7_irt_measurement.py— IRT measurement model
- c8_oecd_monte_carlo.py— OECD Monte Carlo simulation
- c10_uncertainty_audit.py— Uncertainty propagation analysis
- yield_model_analysis.py— Yield model analysis
Utility Scripts
- generate_architecture.py— Generate thesis architecture diagram
- generate_architecture_diagram.py— Generate architecture diagram (v2)