The Event Horizon
Below a Liberty score of 55, the probability of democratic recovery drops to single digits. Countries that cross this threshold enter a gravitational basin from which few return. Of the 91 countries tracked, 60 now sit below this critical line.
60
Countries below the horizon
31
Countries above
8%
Recovery rate below L≈52-55
5
Countries fell below since 2010
The danger zone (L = 52–55): Countries near this band — India (62), South Africa (62), Senegal (60), Israel (60), Hungary (63) — sit perilously close to the critical instability zone. A single shock, a stolen election, or a constitutional overreach could push them across the threshold into the hybrid trap. The United States (48) has already crossed.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
Recently fallen below (since 2010)
United States 94 → 48 (−46)
Turkey 52 → 18 (−34)
Nicaragua 38 → 8 (−30)
Venezuela 28 → 8 (−20)
Mali 31 → 8 (−23)
Tunisia 14 → 22 (rose, still below)
Turkey 52 → 18 (−34)
Nicaragua 38 → 8 (−30)
Venezuela 28 → 8 (−20)
Mali 31 → 8 (−23)
Tunisia 14 → 22 (rose, still below)
At risk — within 10 points of horizon
India 62 (−15 since 2010)
South Africa 62 (−10 since 2010)
Senegal 60 (+8 since 2010)
Israel 60 (−12 since 2010)
Hungary 63 (−21 since 2010)
Bulgaria 66 (−5 since 2010)
Argentina 65 (−3 since 2010)
South Africa 62 (−10 since 2010)
Senegal 60 (+8 since 2010)
Israel 60 (−12 since 2010)
Hungary 63 (−21 since 2010)
Bulgaria 66 (−5 since 2010)
Argentina 65 (−3 since 2010)