Above Event Horizon
45%
reversal probability
Below Event Horizon
12%
reversal probability
Historical Recoveries
6
of 47 countries (since 1995)
Liberty Score
90
80
70
52-55 ←
50
40
30
CONSOLIDATED DEMOCRACYHYBRID TRAPTYRANNY WELL
EVENT HORIZON · CRITICAL INSTABILITY ZONE · SCORE 52-55
▼
Countries by Position
🇩🇪
Germany
Score: 94 · Stable
0
🇵🇱
Poland
Score: 81 · Recovering
+3/yr
🇮🇱
Israel
Score: 68 · Declining
-4/yr
🇭🇺
Hungary
Score: 55 · Hybrid trap
-2/yr
🇺🇸
United States
Score: 48 · Hybrid zone
-8/yr
🇹🇷
Turkey
Score: 32 · Hybrid-to-tyranny transition
-1/yr
🇹🇳
Tunisia
Score: 28 · Collapsed
-11/yr
Reversal Probability by Score
Score 80+78%
Score 70-7945%
Score 60-6918%
Score 50-598%
Score <504%
The hybrid trap (Score 20–55) is a shallow but durable third attractor basin where countries can dwell for decades.
THE PHYSICS OF POLITICAL COLLAPSE
Of 47 countries that crossed below Score 52-55 since 1995, only 6 recovered (12.8%). All required extraordinary intervention: EU accession pressure (Slovakia, Romania), military removal of autocrat (Gambia), or complete elite defection. The USA crossed the Event Horizon in 2025—the first G7 democracy to do so. The tristable model reveals that most countries crossing the Event Horizon stabilize in the hybrid trap (L=20–55)—durable low-quality governance—rather than descending all the way to the tyranny well. The hybrid trap is a shallow but genuine third attractor.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
CLASSIFICATION NOTE: Zone velocities use ending-zone assignment. Starting-zone assignment yields materially different results (e.g., Tyranny Basin: +0.72/yr starting-zone vs −0.64/yr ending-zone). This sensitivity means zone velocity claims should be interpreted with caution.