The Capable Autocracies
The old assumption was simple: development breeds democracy. The data tells a different story. 39 countries now combine high human capabilities (HCI ≥ 70) with low political freedom (Liberty < 55) — rich, educated, and unfree.
39
Capable Autocracies
38
Free & Capable
0.57
Correlation (L × HCI)
81.7
Largest gap (Saudi Arabia)
Geography
Liberty × Capabilities
The Great Decoupling: China (HCI 86, Liberty 5), Russia (HCI 87, Liberty 10), and Saudi Arabia (HCI 89, Liberty 7) prove that autocracies can deliver prosperity without freedom. This is the 21st century's most dangerous political discovery — and its most exportable model.
METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.