1
Consolidated Democracy
Liberty Score: 85-100
Reversal: 82%
Full institutional resilience. Free press, independent judiciary, competitive elections, strong civil society. Minor perturbations self-correct.
Indicators: Press freedom index top 20, judicial independence score >0.8, peaceful transfers of power
🇩🇪Germany94
🇨🇦Canada98
🇳🇴Norway100
2
Early Warning
Liberty Score: 80-84
Reversal: 65%
Emerging illiberal rhetoric. Attacks on "elite" institutions begin. Norms tested but not yet broken. Democratic antibodies still active.
Indicators: Populist leader elected, attacks on media credibility, judicial appointments politicized
🇵🇱Poland81 (recovering)
🇺🇸USA 2017was 83
3
Democratic Erosion
Liberty Score: 70-79
Reversal: 45%
Active norm violation. Media ownership concentrated. Judiciary pressured. Electoral playing field tilted but elections still meaningful.
Indicators: State media capture begins, opposition harassed, gerrymandering/suppression
🇮🇳India66 (declining)
🇮🇱Israel68 (declining)
4
Competitive Authoritarianism
Liberty Score: 60-69
Reversal: 28%
Elections exist but unfair. Opposition legal but disadvantaged. Judiciary captured. Independent media survives in niches. Last exit before the Event Horizon ridgeline. Countries here may be captured by the hybrid trap rather than continuing to tyranny.
Indicators: Constitutional court packed, opposition leaders prosecuted, media ownership 80%+ allied
🇭🇺Hungary 2018was 69
🇵🇭Philippines62
◆
HYBRID TRAP ZONE (L=20-60) Third attractor basin — durable low-quality governance. Many countries stabilize here rather than falling to the tyranny well.
⚠️
EVENT HORIZON · CRITICAL INSTABILITY ZONE · SCORE 52-55[Canonical range: L ≈ 52-55; see 00-CANONICAL-PARAMETERS.md]Reversal probability drops from 28% to 12%Only 6 of 47 countries recovered (1995-2025)Peak volatility zone: σ=15.2
5
Electoral Autocracy
Liberty Score: 50-59
Reversal: 12%
Elections are theater. Opposition exists but cannot win. Courts rubber-stamp. Independent media nearly eliminated. Self-censorship widespread. This stage lies within the hybrid trap zone, where countries often stabilize in durable low-quality governance rather than continuing descent to the tyranny well.
Indicators: Term limits removed, supermajority control, opposition parties defunded/banned
🇭🇺Hungary55
🇺🇸USA 202548
🇸🇻El Salvador51
⚠️ METHODOLOGY NOTE: The PTI score of L≈48 reflects the author's real-time institutional assessment incorporating executive action pace through early 2026. Published indices score the US higher: Freedom House 83/100 (2024 report), V-Dem LDI ≈0.65–0.72 (scaled: ~65–72). The divergence reflects the PTI's faster update cycle, weighting toward institutional constraint erosion, and incorporation of events post-dating published index coverage. All claims should be evaluated under both the author's PTI and established indices.
6
Soft Dictatorship
Liberty Score: 40-49
Reversal: 8%
Elections dropped or purely ceremonial. Opposition leaders in exile or prison. All major media state-controlled. International isolation begins.
Indicators: Political prisoners >100, no independent TV, EU/sanctions imposed
🇷🇺Russia41
🇻🇪Venezuela35
◆
END HYBRID TRAP ZONE Below this line: the tyranny well. Escape velocity increases sharply.
7
Consolidated Autocracy
Liberty Score: 25-39
Reversal: 4%
Single-party or personalist rule. No meaningful elections. Total media control. Mass surveillance. Exit requires regime collapse or death of leader.
Indicators: Leader >10 years, no opposition candidates, >1000 political prisoners
🇹🇷Turkey32
🇹🇳Tunisia28
🇧🇾Belarus28
8
Totalitarianism
Liberty Score: 0-24
Reversal: 2%
Total state control of all aspects of life. No civil society. No private sphere. Ideological conformity enforced. Reversal only through external defeat or system collapse.
Indicators: All media state-owned, no private organizations, exit visas required
🇰🇵North Korea3
🇪🇷Eritrea5
🇸🇾Syria7
RARE RECOVERIES: HOW 6 COUNTRIES ESCAPED AFTER CROSSING
🇸🇰 Slovakia (1998)
EU accession conditionality forced Mečiar out. Score rose from 54 to 89 in 6 years.
🇷🇴 Romania (1996)
EU/NATO pressure + opposition coordination defeated Iliescu's post-communist regime.
🇬🇲 Gambia (2017)
ECOWAS military intervention after Jammeh refused to accept election loss.
Recovery from the hybrid trap (Stages 5-6) is more feasible than recovery from the tyranny well (Stages 7-8). Different escape velocities apply: hybrid trap recovery requires sustained civic mobilization and external pressure, while tyranny well escape typically requires regime collapse or leader death.