All publications are available in HTML and PDF. The Political Topology dataset spans 91 countries, 225 years (1800–2025), and 1,656 country-year observations, crosswalking Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity IV/V, and the Fragile States Index.
Built from: Freedom House · V-Dem · Polity IV/V · Fragile States Index · World Bank · UNDP · IMF
The complete compiled volume presenting a data-driven analysis of political freedom using the LTC (Liberty-Tyranny-Chaos) model across 91 countries and 225 years. Spans from theoretical framework through empirical evidence, credit market analysis, the American case study, and a rigorous self-audit. Published as a working draft by Cambridge Governance Labs, February 2026.
Establishes the LTC coordinate system where Liberty + Tyranny + Chaos = 100, identifying three attractor basins (democratic at μ=82, hybrid at μ=48, autocratic at μ=18). Defines the critical L=52 event horizon below which democratic recovery drops to 3.0%, and maps the eight sequential steps of institutional decay.
Presents the empirical core: 225 years of governance data documenting the post-1945 expansion, post-1989 wave, and contraction since 2006. Reveals that 39 capable autocracies now match the count of free-and-capable states. Includes fourteen maps of human liberty and seven regional cluster analyses.
Demonstrates that bond markets lag governance decline by a median of 4.7 years, with 62% of episodes showing wrong-directional yield responses. Each one-point Liberty decline corresponds to a 35-basis-point yield increase (β=−0.35, R²=0.37). Presents a four-factor sovereign credit model.
Applies the full framework to the United States, documenting its trajectory from a Liberty peak of 94 (~2010) to contested decline, with estimates ranging from L=48 (Political Topology Index) to L=84 (Freedom House). Measures institutional erosion velocity at −9.2 points/year (2020–2025) and constructs forward-looking scenario projections.
Subjects the book's own claims to a four-phase, twenty-task audit. Of twelve quantitative claims tested: 4 confirmed (dataset, liberty-yield relationship, Great Decoupling, AR(1) persistence), 5 refuted (specific numerical calibrations), and 3 partially valid. The conceptual architecture survived; specific numbers required correction.
Front matter includes executive summary, table of contents, and reading guide. Back matter contains technical appendices covering GMM estimation, Langevin SDE, AR(1) persistence modeling (β=0.96, R²=0.87), survival analysis, the four-factor sovereign credit model, Human Capabilities Index construction, bibliography, and index.
Introduces the ternary LTC (Liberty-Tyranny-Chaos) phase space model where L+T+C=100. Uses Gaussian Mixture Model analysis across 1,656 country-year observations to identify three stable attractor basins (democratic at μ=82, hybrid at μ=48, autocratic at μ=18), demonstrating that political regimes are tristable rather than bistable. Fits a Langevin stochastic differential equation to model transitions between basins.
Identifies a critical Liberty threshold at approximately L=52 below which the probability of democratic recovery drops to 3.0%. Analyzes survival curves of regime episodes to establish that once countries cross this threshold, the gravitational pull toward autocratic consolidation becomes nearly irreversible without exogenous intervention.
Documents the historically unprecedented divergence between state capability and political freedom. The correlation between liberty and capability has declined from 0.79 (pre-1900) to 0.57 (2025), with 39 countries now qualifying as "capable autocracies" — states with high institutional effectiveness but Liberty scores below 35 — matching the count of free-and-capable states for the first time.
Estimates the relationship between institutional quality and sovereign borrowing costs. The bivariate specification finds β=−0.35 per Liberty point (R²=0.37); the four-factor model incorporating liberty, debt-to-GDP, reserve currency status, and regime velocity achieves R²=0.79. Documents a median 4.7-year lag between governance decline and credit market repricing.
Maps the sequential pathway through which democracies decay, identifying eight ordered stages from media capture and civil society restriction through judicial subordination to electoral manipulation. Demonstrates that inter-step intervals accelerate as erosion progresses, with early stages providing the longest window for intervention.
Demonstrates extreme persistence in political regime trajectories using autoregressive modeling. The AR(1) coefficient of β=0.96 (R²=0.87) shows that a country's Liberty score is overwhelmingly determined by its prior-year score, implying that regime change is rare and regime persistence is the dominant dynamic in political systems.
Documents the construction and validation of the Political Topology dataset spanning 91 countries, 225 years, and 1,656 country-year observations. Details source crosswalking between Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity IV/V, and the Fragile States Index, including methods for historical imputation and inter-source calibration.
Analyzes autocratic regime survival using selectorate theory and survival analysis across 157 regime episodes. Examines how winning coalition size, resource rents, and institutional design affect regime duration. Finds that small-coalition regimes optimize for loyalty over competence, creating a performance-legitimacy trap that makes them fragile to economic shocks.
Constructs a composite index measuring state capability — education, health, infrastructure, institutional effectiveness — independently of political freedom. Enables the identification of "capable autocracies" and "fragile democracies" by orthogonalizing capability from liberty, revealing the Great Decoupling in quantitative terms.
Investigates why US Treasury yields fail to reflect democratic erosion visible in governance indices. The four-factor model (R²=0.79) suggests the US is mispriced by approximately 650 basis points. Reserve currency status accounts for ~2,080bp of yield compression. Historical analysis of the sterling-to-dollar transition (1914–1956) suggests reserve premia erode over 15–30 years.
Integrates the resource curse literature (Ross, Karl, Auty) with the LTC framework and selectorate theory (Bueno de Mesquita et al.) to demonstrate that natural resource concentration functions as a tyranny attractor. Resource-dependent countries (rents >15% GDP) have a mean Liberty score of 28 versus 58 for non-resource states, and recovery rates from below L=52 drop to 1.2%. Formalizes the resource effect as a downward drift term in the Langevin SDE governing regime transitions, operating through three channels: fiscal independence from taxation, patronage-funded winning coalitions, and resource-financed coercive capacity.
A comprehensive quantitative assessment of democratic health across 91 countries. Features the global picture at a glance (mean Liberty score of 48, 34% of countries rated "free," 19 consecutive years of decline), 225-year historical context, regional profiles for seven world regions, velocity-of-decline analysis, the tristable basin model, and country spotlights.
Explains why capability no longer equals freedom and what it means for 4.5 billion people living under capable autocracies. Documents the correlation breakdown (0.79 historically to 0.57 today), maps the four quadrants of the liberty-capability space, traces four country trajectories, and poses five questions for the post-decoupling world.
A visual guide to the sequential pathway of democratic erosion, from media capture through civil society restriction, judicial subordination, and electoral manipulation. Maps the accelerating inter-step intervals and identifies warning signs at each stage.
Examines why sovereign credit markets systematically fail to price democratic erosion, documenting the 4.7-year median lag and 62% wrong-directional yield response rate. Shows how bond markets effectively subsidize autocratization by maintaining cheap borrowing for deteriorating regimes.
Applies the political topology framework to the United States, documenting the trajectory from peak Liberty (L=94) to contested decline. Examines the 36-point spread between the most alarming (L=48) and most conservative (L=84) estimates, and assesses what makes the American case historically unprecedented among consolidated democracies.
Explores the economics and game theory of staying in power, drawing on selectorate theory across 157 regime episodes. Explains how dictators optimize tenure by managing winning coalitions, why resource rents enable repression, and what capital flight signals reveal about regime fragility.
A cartographic companion presenting fourteen maps of human liberty across the full 225-year dataset. Visualizes the geographic distribution and evolution of political freedom, tyranny, and chaos, showing how regional clusters form and shift over time.
Examines seven regional clusters and their distinct governance trajectories: Western Europe, Eastern Europe and post-Soviet states, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. Each region features unique dynamics and path dependencies.
A case study of China as the paradigmatic capable autocracy, analyzing the intersection of high state capacity (L=5, T=87, C=8), rapid debt accumulation, and the performance-legitimacy trap. Examines how China's governance model challenges the assumption that development requires democratization.
A public summary of the book's self-audit: 4 claims confirmed, 5 refuted, 3 partially valid. Demonstrates the project's commitment to intellectual honesty by publishing which of its own quantitative claims survived rigorous scrutiny and which required correction or retraction.
A methodology guide explaining the quantitative framework, data sources, models, and known limitations behind the Political Topology Index. Covers the ternary phase space concept (the "marble on a contoured landscape" metaphor), measurement strategy for L/T/C components, data source integration, and statistical methods.
An investor-oriented brief presenting the four-factor sovereign credit model and its implications for portfolio positioning. Translates the academic governance-yield findings into actionable market intelligence, highlighting the 3–12 year repricing lag as both a systemic risk and an investment opportunity.